Wednesday 25 June 2008

Pushing metal and buying metal

Pushing it... In the United States, GM, Ford and their fellow carmakers are increasingly creative in their efforts to "push metal" out of their factories. For instance, on Monday, GM announced, among other things, 6-year 0% car loans aimed at slowing the decline in some its previously most-successful models, which have now become unattractive due to their fuel requirements and consumer demand sluggishness. The GM share price recently hit a 26-year low: maybe the market does not really believe these measures will help much?

Buying it... Audi, part of the Volkswagen AG group, warned on Sunday that it may need to raise prices faster than inflation in 2009 due to higher raw material and other costs. This will depend on what competitors do. Nissan said that steel groups (e.g. ArcelorMittal, world #1) were bound to raise their prices significantly, perhaps in 2009: the carmaker is therefore planning to reflect this in its car prices, starting with markets where Nissan is strongest, such as +2% or +3% in Japan. The timing will depend on when its competitors start to announce similar intentions. Conversely, Fiat's spokesman said today that its Auto division did not plan an increase its prices, especially in the current market of sharply declining Italian car registration numbers. A Credit Suisse analyst estimates that raising prices by 5% to 10% would result in a 10% to 20% loss in volumes and therefore (additional) over-capacity. Are we going back full circle with carmakers desperately trying to "push metal" at any cost again?

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